Many experts argue that the rapid decline in the price of ETH during the II and III quarters of this year is due to the mass sale of the asset by the organizers of the ICO, who are afraid of losses and are forced to bear daily costs. Some also suggest that not all projects have sold their assets and there is a possibility of another wave of decline. Cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX conducted a study of this issue and said that their fears are groundless.
BitMEX Research and TokenAnalyst analyzed 222 projects, which together raised $5.5 billion in Ethereum and found that they currently sold ETH for about the same amount (just $11 million less). Thus, it turns out that they have already got rid of the risk of losses in dollar terms, but there are still 3.8 million ETH in stock, which is approximately 25% of the initially collected volume.
Many may be surprised that ICO projects have not a current loss, but unrealized income, but it is worth considering the time of fundraising. Most of the projects conducted campaigns of sale of tokens before the start of the sharp rise in the rate of ETH. However, this information does not guarantee that some individual ICO did not suffer serious losses.
The total amount of unrealized losses of projects that continued to hold ETH after the ICO is $311 million, but the unrealized income is higher and amounts to $403 million.
On the chart above, you can see that over the past 26 months, the wallets of ICO projects had a maximum of 5.1 million ETH, this figure is much less than the funds collected for all time (15.2 million or 8 million, if we exclude EOS). Thus, it can be concluded that the previously collected ETH with the help of ICO were sold and re-invested in new projects. Also, the graph shows that most of the ICO-projects collected funds before reaching ETH peak values ($1400).
Based on its research, BitMEX Research concludes that the balance on ICO balances has a weak impact, and a new panic sale is no longer in question. The researchers also suggested possible errors in the calculations with respect to individual projects, but note that the overall picture does not change.
«Another question is whether the projects have invested wisely and will invest the collected funds, whether they will develop useful products and services. We assume that the level of accountability in some of these ICOS is low. Sometimes it is difficult to analyze how much money was collected, which currencies were collected, which Ethereum addresses were used, spent/sold assets or not. But at first glance it seems that the fruits of investment are disappointing, » the researchers write.